I wish that I could stop writing blog posts whose theme is “when it comes to the standoff between Russia and Ukraine, things are terrible,” but when it comes to the standoff between Russia and Ukraine, things are terrible.

• Estonia is convinced that Russia is going to invade Eastern Ukraine, and given that Russian troops are massing at the border, no one can really blame the Estonians–or anyone else, for that matter–for being concerned.
• John Kerry has warned Russia that it has until Monday of next week to reverse course, or else “there will be a very serious series of steps.” No one has any clue what that means, and in all likelihood, this is a “Stop! Or I will say ‘stop’ again!” moment for the Obama administration.
• Internally, the Putin regime is cracking down on dissent and is threatening to deport foreign executives for the most trivial of offenses (we’re talking jaywalking and parking tickets). All of which means that if the Russians are bluffing about invading, the bluff is an extraordinarily good one.